A Study of Aducanumab in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia to Evaluate the Safety of Continued Dosing in Participants With Asymptomatic Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 30% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (731 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimeraddementiasubjects within subjects
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofscreeningpharmacokineticsparticipantprior to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• 221AD302 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02484547 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• 221AD301 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02477800 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Multiple Dose Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) (Recombinant, Fully Human Anti-Aβ IgG1 mAb) in Participants With Prodromal or Mild Alzheimer's Disease NCT01677572 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Verify the Clinical Benefit of Aducanumab in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT05310071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of BIIB092 in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT03352557 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.