Effectiveness Study of Nivolumab Compared to Chemotherapy in Patients With Relapsed Small-cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapystagecellin subjectsplatinum
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelan opencomparewith relapsedlabel randomized
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 93 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 506 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, or Placebo in Patients With Extensive-Stage Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer (ED-SCLC) After Completion of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT02538666 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Trial of Nivolumab, or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab, or Nivolumab Plus Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy, Compared to Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy in Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02477826 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• An Open-Label, Randomized, Phase 3 Trial of Nivolumab Versus Investigator's Choice Chemotherapy as First-Line Therapy for Stage IV or Recurrent PD-L1+ Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (CheckMate 026) NCT02041533 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Efficacy Study of Nivolumab Compared to Docetaxel in Subjects Previously Treated With Advanced or Metastatic Non Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02613507 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Feasibility and Safety Study of Nivolumab With Irinotecan for Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04173325 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.