Feasibility and Safety Study of Nivolumab With Irinotecan for Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-05-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: lung cancercell lungsmall cellrelapsedrefractory
  Phrases that lowered it: participantseffectand safetygenotypesafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15013 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study of Nivolumab, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, or Placebo in Patients With Extensive-Stage Disease Small Cell Lung Cancer (ED-SCLC) After Completion of Platinum-based Chemotherapy NCT02538666 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Effectiveness Study of Nivolumab Compared to Chemotherapy in Patients With Relapsed Small-cell Lung Cancer NCT02481830 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Induction Chemo-Nivo in Unresectable Stage III NSCLC NCT06003075 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Trial of Nivolumab, or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab, or Nivolumab Plus Platinum-doublet Chemotherapy, Compared to Platinum Doublet Chemotherapy in Patients With Stage IV Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02477826 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• NIvolumab COmbination With Standard First-line Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT02434081 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.