NIvolumab COmbination With Standard First-line Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycarcinomaconcurrentstagemri
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsto investigateinvestigate theefficacyvalue
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 37.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1989 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Cisplatin and Etoposide Plus Radiation Followed By Nivolumab/Placebo For Locally Advanced NSCLC NCT02768558 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab With or Without Ipilimumab or Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Stage I-IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03158129 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of Nivolumab +/- Nab-paclitaxel in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02967133 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab and Ipilimumab Versus Chimiotherapy in First Line Treatment in PS 2 or Elderly in Advanced NSCLC Patients NCT03351361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Trial With Nivolumab and IpiliMUmab in LImited Disease NCT02046733 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.