Small Cell Lung Carcinoma Trial With Nivolumab and IpiliMUmab in LImited Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: womenpcilungipilimumabchemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: trialdaysinvestigatethe aimaim of
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 37.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 86.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9043 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NIvolumab COmbination With Standard First-line Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT02434081 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab + Nivolumab w/Thoracic Radiotherapy for Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03043599 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Patients With ES-SCLC and ECOG PS=2 Receiving Atezolizumab-Carboplatin-Etoposide NCT04221529 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Thoracic RadiothErapy With Atezolizumab in Small Cell lUng canceR Extensive Disease NCT04462276 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.