Cisplatin and Etoposide Plus Radiation Followed By Nivolumab/Placebo For Locally Advanced NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celllung cancernon smallstagensclc
  Phrases that lowered it: copdwomentomographyupperimaging
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13777 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 58442 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• NIvolumab COmbination With Standard First-line Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT02434081 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• Phase II Clinical Trial of NIVO-IPI-TAXANE in Untreated Metastatic NSCLC NCT03573947 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab With or Without Ipilimumab or Chemotherapy in Treating Patients With Previously Untreated Stage I-IIIA Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03158129 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant PD-1 Antibody Plus Chemotherapy in Resectable Stage IIIA-N2 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT04422392 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Nivolumab +/- Nab-paclitaxel in Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02967133 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.