Neoadjuvant PD-1 Antibody Plus Chemotherapy in Resectable Stage IIIA-N2 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesmall cellcell lungnon smallrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andand safetydailypdthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neo-Adjuvant Immunotherapy With Nivolumab for Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients NCT03081689 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab as Neoadjuvant Therapy for Resectable Stage IA3 to IIA Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT04638582 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) vs Placebo for Participants With Non-small Cell Lung Cancer After Resection With or Without Standard Adjuvant Therapy (MK-3475-091/KEYNOTE-091) NCT02504372 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Cisplatin and Etoposide Plus Radiation Followed By Nivolumab/Placebo For Locally Advanced NSCLC NCT02768558 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab Plus Cisplatin/Pemetrexed or Cisplatin/Gemcitabine as Induction in Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03366766 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.