Hormonal Therapy and Chemotherapy Followed by Prostatectomy in Patients With Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfunctioncancerchemotherapystage
  Phrases that lowered it: clinicaldiseasesmgweeksprostate
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 48934 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 10430 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Hormone Therapy Plus Chemotherapy as Initial Treatment for Local Failures or Advanced Prostate Cancer NCT02560051 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Radiation Therapy, Androgen Suppression, and Docetaxel in Treating Patients With High-Risk Prostate Cancer Who Have Undergone Radical Prostatectomy NCT00528866 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Androgen Suppression and Radiation With/Out Docetaxel in High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer NCT00651326 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• A Salvage Trial of AR Inhibition With ADT and Apalutamide With Radiation Therapy Followed by Docetaxel in Men With PSA Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy (STARTAR) NCT03311555 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Cabazitaxel and Radiation For Patients With Prostate Cancer NCT01650285 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.