A Salvage Trial of AR Inhibition With ADT and Apalutamide With Radiation Therapy Followed by Docetaxel in Men With PSA Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy (STARTAR)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 35% for any early termination, 20% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerradiationtherapybowelbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningimpairmentpatients whovisitthe investigator
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11177 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 30492 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Salvage Therapeutic Radiation With Enzalutamide and ADT in Men With Recurrent Prostate Cancer (STREAM) NCT02057939 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant And Adjuvant Abiraterone Acetate + Apalutamide Prostate Cancer Undergoing Prostatectomy NCT02903368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Active Surveillance With or Without Apalutamide Treatment in Low Risk Prostate Cancer NCT03088124 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase II Study of Increased-Dose Abiraterone Acetate in Patients With Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT01637402 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.