Active Surveillance With or Without Apalutamide Treatment in Low Risk Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellmonths priorulnto randomization
  Phrases that lowered it: havingclinicalstudy drugdosecondom
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 16 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant And Adjuvant Abiraterone Acetate + Apalutamide Prostate Cancer Undergoing Prostatectomy NCT02903368 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Gonadotropin-Releasing Hormone Analog With or Without Abiraterone Acetate in Treating Participants With Prostate Cancer NCT03279250 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Leuprolide in Intermediate and High-risk Prostate Cancer NCT02770391 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
• Apalutamide and Abiraterone Acetate in African American and Caucasian Men With Metastatic Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03098836 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Salvage Trial of AR Inhibition With ADT and Apalutamide With Radiation Therapy Followed by Docetaxel in Men With PSA Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radical Prostatectomy (STARTAR) NCT03311555 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.