A Study to Evaluate the Effect of the Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid 4 (TRPV4) Channel Blocker, GSK2798745, on Pulmonary Gas Transfer and Respiration in Patients With Congestive Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 9% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 2230 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboheartdouble blindcontrolledcoronary
  Phrases that lowered it: copdcrossoverperiodscreeningadministration
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Assess the Effectiveness and Side Effects of GSK2798745 in Participants With Chronic Cough NCT03372603 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials terminated
• A Phase I Study to Assess the Pharmacokinetics of GSK2798745 Tablets NCT02925546 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• A Proof of Mechanism Study With GSK2126458 in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT01725139 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Dose-Response Relationship of Multiple Doses of GSK2269557 Administered as a Dry Powder to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Patients NCT02130635 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• Single Dose Study of GSK1440115 in Patients With Asthma NCT01424280 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.