Testing the PD-1 Inhibitor Pembrolizumab as Maintenance Therapy After Initial Chemotherapy in Metastatic Bladder Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellregistrationchemotherapysquamous
  Phrases that lowered it: linedrugsubjectsinterfere withweeks
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 1172 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 1517 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Pembrolizumab and Nab Paclitaxel in Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma NCT03464734 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Refractory Metastatic Urothelial Cancer NCT02581982 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Phase I/Ib Study of Pembrolizumab With Vorinostat for Patients With Advanced Renal or Urothelial Cell Carcinoma NCT02619253 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• IO102-IO103 in Combination With Pembrolizumab as First-line Treatment for Patients With Metastatic NSCLC, SCCHN, or mUBC NCT05077709 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab in Patients With Poor-Prognosis Carcinoma of Unknown Primary Site (CUP) NCT03391973 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.