Paclitaxel and Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Refractory Metastatic Urothelial Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 19% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-12-19, after 2016-04-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancercellbrainrefractorymetastases
Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferaseusedreceivedparticipatedrugs -
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 78 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 224 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6951 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 224 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 78 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 26557 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 6951 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lambrolizumab, paclitaxel, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab and Nab Paclitaxel in Patients With Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma NCT03464734 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and Docetaxel or Gemcitabine Hydrochloride in Treating Patients Urothelial Cancer NCT02437370 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
- Testing the PD-1 Inhibitor Pembrolizumab as Maintenance Therapy After Initial Chemotherapy in Metastatic Bladder Cancer NCT02500121 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and Combination Chemotherapy Before Surgery for the Treatment of Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT04383743 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab, Paclitaxel, Carboplatin, and Radiation Therapy in Treating Patients With Stage II-IIIB Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02621398 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.