Study to Evaluate Maintenance of Sustained Remission of axSpA With CZP Compared to Placebo

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 12% of the time (114 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsscreeningplacebosubjectscore
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsulnlimitupperarthritis
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 59.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multicenter Study Evaluating Certolizumab Pegol Compared to Placebo in Subjects With axSpA Without X-ray Evidence of AS NCT02552212 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• Certolizumab Pegol in Subjects With Active Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT01087762 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• AScalate: Treat-to-target in Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT03906136 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Scintigraphic Detection of the Biodistribution of Tumor Necrosis Factor With a Radiolabeled Anti-TNFα in Patients With Active Rheumatoid Arthritis and Active Axial and Peripheral Spondyloarthritis NCT01590966 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ustekinumab in the Treatment of Anti-TNF(Alpha) Refractory Participants With Active Radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis NCT02438787 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.