28-Day Repeated Topical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Activity of 5 Escalating Dose Levels of SAR366234 and One Dose of Latanoprost in Patients With Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 816 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 60 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientpatientseyediabeticprogression
  Phrases that lowered it: mmhgopentopicalpressurevaccination
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety Study of Latanoprost Slow Release Insert NCT01180062 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials terminated
• A Phase III Multinational Multicenter Investigator-Masked Randomized Active-Controlled Trial Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of DE-130A With Xalatan® in Patients With Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT04133311 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of AR-13324 to Latanoprost in Patients With Elevated Intraocular Pressure NCT01731002 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of T-2345 Compared to Xalatan in Subjects With Primary Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02059278 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• AR-12286 in Combination With Latanoprost NCT01302249 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.