A Phase III Multinational Multicenter Investigator-Masked Randomized Active-Controlled Trial Comparing the Efficacy and Safety of DE-130A With Xalatan® in Patients With Open-Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eyeocularpatientglaucomadisease
  Phrases that lowered it: topicaland safetyefficacy andsafety ofopen
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy of T-2345 Compared to Xalatan in Subjects With Primary Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02059278 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
• H-1337 Ophthalmic Solution Phase 1/2 NCT03452033 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing the Safety and Efficacy of AR-13324 to Latanoprost in Patients With Elevated Intraocular Pressure NCT01731002 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
• 28-Day Repeated Topical Study to Evaluate the Safety and Activity of 5 Escalating Dose Levels of SAR366234 and One Dose of Latanoprost in Patients With Open Angle Glaucoma or Ocular Hypertension NCT02531152 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Nebivolol 0.5, 1.0, or Timolol 0.5 Suspension Compared to Timolol 0.5 Solution to Treat Glaucoma/Ocular Hypertension NCT04910100 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.