Efficacy and Safety Study of Sirukumab in Patients With Giant Cell Arteritis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsplacebomultipledouble blindbowel
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofopen labelevaluate the
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 2171 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.8% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 257 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 108307 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 23572 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Efficacy and Safety of Sarilumab in Patients With GCA NCT03600805 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated
• A Placebo-controlled Phase 2 Trial to Investigate the Safety and Efficacy of Secukinumab in Giant Cell Arteritis NCT03765788 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of Tocilizumab (RoActemra/Actemra) in Participants With Giant Cell Arteritis (GCA) NCT01791153 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of Secukinumab in Patients With New Onset of Giant Cell Arteritis Who Are in Clinical Remission NCT05380453 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Guselkumab for the Treatment of Participants With New-onset or Relapsing Giant Cell Arteritis NCT04633447 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.