Comparison of Single-Agent Carboplatin vs the Combination of Carboplatin and Everolimus for the Treatment of Advanced Triple-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 40% for any early termination, 23% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: everolimusmetastaticwomenbreast cancerct
  Phrases that lowered it: bowelpatientshcvscreeningulcerative
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39915 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8515 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Everolimus and Letrozole or Hormonal Therapy to Treat Endometrial Cancer NCT02228681 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• NECTAR Everolimus Plus Cisplatin in Triple (-) Breast Cancer NCT01931163 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study of Everolimus With Paclitaxel and Carboplatin in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT01014351 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Study of Everolimus, Pemetrexed, Carboplatin, and Bevacizumab to Treat Stage IV Lung Cancer NCT01700400 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Everolimus, Carboplatin, and Etoposide in Treating Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer or Other Advanced Solid Tumors NCT00807755 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.