Neoadjuvant Aromatase Inhibitor(AI) With Ovarian Suppression Versus Chemotherapy in Premenopausal Breast Cancer Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 15% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-03-31, after 2016-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartstagecarcinomacancerdisease
Phrases that lowered it: ovarianand safetyefficacy andaccordingthe efficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 5 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4532 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 716 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- goserelin
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety of OFS Combined With AI Endocrine Therapy in Chinese Premenopausal Breast Cancer Patients NCT02440230 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant Plus Palbociclib in Operable Breast Cancer Responding to Fulvestrant NCT03447132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
- Simultaneous Versus Sequential Use of Adjuvant Chemotherapy and GnRHa in Treating ER+,Premenopausal Breast Cancer NCT01712893 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Hormone Receptor-Positive, Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 (HER2)-Negative Node-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03219476 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- To Reduce the Use of Chemotherapy in Postmenopausal Patients With ER-positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer (TOUCH) NCT03644186 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.