To Reduce the Use of Chemotherapy in Postmenopausal Patients With ER-positive and HER2-positive Breast Cancer (TOUCH)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2coronaryboweltumor
  Phrases that lowered it: trialopenlabelgroupovarian
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 30794 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 137112 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Neoadjuvant Biomarker ResearcH Study of Palbociclib Combined With Endocrine Therapy in Estrogen Receptor Positive/HER2 Negative Breast CAncer (NeoRHEA) NCT03065621 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Letrozole and Palbociclib in Patients With Stage II-IIIB Breast Cancer, HR+, HER2 - NCT03819010 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• PALbociclib Rechallenge in horMone Receptor-posItive/HER2- Negative Advanced Breast Cancer (PALMIRA) NCT03809988 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• A Study of Palbociclib in Addition to Standard Endocrine Treatment in Hormone Receptor Positive Her2 Normal Patients With Residual Disease After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Surgery NCT01864746 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Fulvestrant Versus Fulvestrant Plus Palbociclib in Operable Breast Cancer Responding to Fulvestrant NCT03447132 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.