Intrathecal Rituximab in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (453 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 100% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: rituximabchemotherapytumortherapyprogressive
  Phrases that lowered it: single dosemalesevere45 yearsof single
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 45 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13453 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 1 Trial of Intrathecal Rituximab for Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT02253264 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• Intrathecal Therapy With Monoclonal Antibodies in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT01719159 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Double Blind Combination of Rituximab by Intravenous and Intrathecal Injection Versus Placebo in Patients With Low-Inflammatory Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (RIVITaLISe) NCT01212094 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated
• Intrathecal Rituximab in Lymphoid Malignancies Involving Central Nervous System NCT01596127 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• Comparison of Clinical Effects of Rituximab and Glatiramer Acetate in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Patients NCT03315923 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.