Comparison of Clinical Effects of Rituximab and Glatiramer Acetate in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Patients

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-03-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: brainstatuscellprogressiveradiotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: historybody5518 andallergic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 70 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 89317 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 55 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Comparison of Rituximab Induction Therapy Followed by Glatiramer Acetate NCT01569451 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• RItuximab Versus FUmarate in Newly Diagnosed Multiple Sclerosis. NCT02746744 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of Glatiramer Acetate NCT01874145 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
• A Study in Subjects With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) to Assess the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Glatiramer Acetate (GA) Injection 40 mg Administered Three Times a Week Compared to Placebo NCT01067521 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Double Blind Combination of Rituximab by Intravenous and Intrathecal Injection Versus Placebo in Patients With Low-Inflammatory Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (RIVITaLISe) NCT01212094 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.