Relationship Between Tumor Mutation Burden and Predicted Neo-antigen Burden in Patients With Advanced Melanoma or Bladder Cancer Treated With Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab (CA209-260)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-04-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancerchemotherapysubjects withstage
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectantidrugvirusrna
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 404 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase II Trial of Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Rare Cancers NCT02923934 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Low Dose Ipilimumab With Pembrolizumab in Treating Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain NCT03873818 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab and Temozolomide in Treating Patients With Recurrent or Refractory Small-Cell Lung Cancer or Advanced Neuroendocrine Cancer NCT03728361 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• A Trial Evaluating the Safety & Efficacy of Intra-Tumoral Ipilimumab in Combination With Intra-venous Nivolumab in Patients With Metastatic Melanoma NCT02857569 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Fostering Efficacy of Anti - PD-1 - Treatment: Nivolumab Plus Radiotherapy in Advanced NSCLC NCT03044626 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.