Extension Study of BG00012 in Pediatric Subjects With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 39% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-09-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsubjectsthe longlong termmultiple sclerosis
  Phrases that lowered it: safety ofefficacyto evaluatepediatricparent
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 50 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 190 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 46887 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 10 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12739 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase 3 Efficacy and Safety Study of BG00012 in Pediatric Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT02283853 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
• BG00012 Monotherapy Safety and Efficacy Extension Study in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT00835770 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Extension Study to Evaluate Safety and Efficacy of Natalizumab in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01416155 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Dimethyl Fumarate (Tecfidera) and Peginterferon Beta-1a (Plegridy) for the Treatment of Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in Pediatric Participants NCT03870763 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Study of the Effect of BG00012 on MRI Lesions and Pharmacokinetics in Pediatric Subjects With RRMS NCT02410200 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.