Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Previously-Treated Participants With Advanced Carcinoma of the Esophagus or Esophagogastric Junction (MK-3475-180/KEYNOTE-180)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-29, after 2015-12-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: carcinomacancersquamous cellmetastatictherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccinemklinedays after -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 75.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1119 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1119 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 117 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1675 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1190 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 75.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 30.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Investigator's Choice Standard Therapy for Participants With Advanced Esophageal/ Esophagogastric Junction Carcinoma That Progressed After First-Line Therapy (MK-3475-181/KEYNOTE-181) NCT02564263 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Investigator's Choice of Chemotherapy for Participants With Advanced Esophageal/Esophagogastric Junction Carcinoma That Progressed After First-Line Therapy (MK-3475-181/KEYNOTE-181)-China Extension Study NCT03933449 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Recurrent or Metastatic Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma (MK-3475-059/KEYNOTE-059) NCT02335411 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Chemotherapy Versus Placebo Plus Chemotherapy in Participants With Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction (GEJ) Adenocarcinoma (MK-3475-585/KEYNOTE-585) NCT03221426 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Paclitaxel for Participants With Advanced Gastric/Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma That Progressed After Therapy With Platinum and Fluoropyrimidine (MK-3475-061/KEYNOTE-061) NCT02370498 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.