Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Investigator's Choice of Chemotherapy for Participants With Advanced Esophageal/Esophagogastric Junction Carcinoma That Progressed After First-Line Therapy (MK-3475-181/KEYNOTE-181)-China Extension Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-14, after 2016-12-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapycellsubjects withmetastaticdisease
Phrases that lowered it: participantsvaccineextensionsingleopen label -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 103 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14354 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 1167 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1167 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 103 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 67358 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 14354 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- docetaxel, irinotecan, paclitaxel, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Investigator's Choice Standard Therapy for Participants With Advanced Esophageal/ Esophagogastric Junction Carcinoma That Progressed After First-Line Therapy (MK-3475-181/KEYNOTE-181) NCT02564263 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 21% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Previously-Treated Participants With Advanced Carcinoma of the Esophagus or Esophagogastric Junction (MK-3475-180/KEYNOTE-180) NCT02559687 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab Versus Docetaxel in Participants Previously Treated for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-033/KEYNOTE-033) NCT02864394 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Versus Paclitaxel in Asian Participants With Advanced Gastric or Gastroesophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma Who Progressed After First-line Therapy With Platinum and Fluoropyrimidine (MK-3475-063/KEYNOTE-063) NCT03019588 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
- Study of Pemetrexed+Platinum Chemotherapy With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With First Line Metastatic Nonsquamous Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (MK-3475-189/KEYNOTE-189)-Japan Extension Study NCT03950674 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.