A Phase I Study of Safety, Tolerability, and PK of AZD2811 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumors.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: evidenceliverdiseasehave receiveduln
  Phrases that lowered it: doseadvanced solidescalationtolerabilitybilateral
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1333 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• AZD 2811 Monotherapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients [SUKSES-N3] NCT03366675 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
• AZD1775 Combined With Olaparib in Patients With Refractory Solid Tumors NCT02511795 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• AZD9150 Plus Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced, Solid Tumours and in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT03421353 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose-Escalation Study of AZD4785 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT03101839 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Trial to Evaluate AZD7648 Alone and in Combination With Other Anti-cancer Agents in Patients With Advanced Cancers. NCT03907969 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.