AZD9150 Plus Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced, Solid Tumours and in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-03-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailureprostatediseasemri
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsopen labelhas historyulndose
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1483 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 117 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 21.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 174821 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 28859 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Durvalumab(MEDI4736) and AZD6738 Combination Therapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer Subjects NCT04361825 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• AZD2811 and Durvalumab (MEDI4736) Combination Therapy in Relapsed Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04525391 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AZD1775 (Adavosertib) Plus MEDI4736 (Durvalumab) in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT02617277 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• FRAIL-IMMUNE (GORTEC 2018-03) - Combination of Durvalumab With Carboplatin/Paclitaxel NCT03723967 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) in Frail and Elder Patients With Metastatic NSCLC (DURATION) NCT03345810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.