Durvalumab (MEDI4736) in Frail and Elder Patients With Metastatic NSCLC (DURATION)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 26% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: nsclcpsoriasiscancercell lungsmall cell
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationgemcitabinedays beforeclinical40
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 30% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 16733 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 5 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Chemoradiation Plus Durvalumab Followed by Surgery Followed by Adjuvant Durvalumab in Patients With Surgically Resectable Stage III (N2) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03871153 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Astra Zeneca (Immuno Stereotactic Ablative Body Radiotherapy) ISABR Study: Randomized Phase I/II Study of Stereotactic Body Radiotherapy NCT03148327 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated
• A Trial of Durvalumab and Tremelimumab in Combination With SBRT in Patients With Metastatic Cancer NCT03212469 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• SGI-110 Plus Durvalumab/Tremelimumab in SCLC NCT03085849 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• AZD9150 Plus Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Advanced, Solid Tumours and in Patients With Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer NCT03421353 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.