Chemoradiation Plus Durvalumab Followed by Surgery Followed by Adjuvant Durvalumab in Patients With Surgically Resectable Stage III (N2) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomastagesubjectprior
  Phrases that lowered it: arthritisrheumatoidaminotransferaseinfluenzainflammatory
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 146758 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 22957 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Staggered, Chemo-Immunotherapy With Durvalumab, MEDI4736 Pemetrexed & Carboplatin (PC) for Metastatic Non-Squamous NSCLC NCT04163432 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab (MEDI4736) in Frail and Elder Patients With Metastatic NSCLC (DURATION) NCT03345810 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• A Trial With Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, and Radiotherapy for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04951115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab and Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Advanced NSCLC NCT04786093 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Efficacy Study of Nab®-Paclitaxel With CC-486 or Nab®-Paclitaxel With Durvalumab, and Nab®-Paclitaxel Monotherapy as Second/Third-line Treatment for Advanced Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02250326 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.