Study of Lenalidomide and Dexamethasone With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Treatment Naive Multiple Myeloma (MK-3475-185/KEYNOTE-185)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-07-13, after 2015-10-19 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-07-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomapriorcancerhas history
Phrases that lowered it: participantsmyelomadexamethasonelenalidomidethe efficacy -
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 115 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 24.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1112 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 141873 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 50591 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1112 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.2% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 115 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 141873 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 50591 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 90.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 24.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- dexamethasone, lenalidomide, pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study of Pomalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Refractory or Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma (rrMM) (MK-3475-183/KEYNOTE-183) NCT02576977 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Determine Dose and Regimen of Durvalumab as Monotherapy or in Combination With Pomalidomide With or Without Dexamethasone in Subjects With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02616640 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- A Trial of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Blood Cancers (MK-3475-013/KEYNOTE-013) NCT01953692 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- A Trial Evaluating Efficacy & Safety of RVD +/- Panobinostat in Transplant Eligible, Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM) NCT02720510 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy for the Combination of Durvalumab and Daratumumab in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02807454 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.