A Study to Determine Dose and Regimen of Durvalumab as Monotherapy or in Combination With Pomalidomide With or Without Dexamethasone in Subjects With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomasquamoussitusubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomaprostateclinicalgroupparallel
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 59 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26957 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 77297 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine the Safety and Efficacy for the Combination of Durvalumab and Daratumumab in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02807454 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Standard of Care Treatments in Participants With Multiple Myeloma (MK-3475-023/KEYNOTE-023) NCT02036502 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• Study of Pomalidomide and Low Dose Dexamethasone With or Without Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Refractory or Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma (rrMM) (MK-3475-183/KEYNOTE-183) NCT02576977 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials terminated
• A Trial Evaluating Efficacy & Safety of RVD +/- Panobinostat in Transplant Eligible, Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (NDMM) NCT02720510 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Atezolizumab (Anti-Programmed Death-Ligand 1 [PD-L1] Antibody) Alone or in Combination With an Immunomodulatory Drug and/or Daratumumab in Participants With Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT02431208 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.