A Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Combination With Standard of Care Treatments in Participants With Multiple Myeloma (MK-3475-023/KEYNOTE-023)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-03-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1008 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: leukemiapriorcellcombinationtherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantfirst dosehepatitis virusand safety
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 8 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 78946 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Atezolizumab (Anti-Programmed Death-Ligand 1 [PD-L1] Antibody) Alone or in Combination With an Immunomodulatory Drug and/or Daratumumab in Participants With Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT02431208 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study to Determine Dose and Regimen of Durvalumab as Monotherapy or in Combination With Pomalidomide With or Without Dexamethasone in Subjects With Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02616640 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Pidilizumab in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02077959 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab Role in the Treatment of Patients With Refractory or Relapse Multiple Myeloma NCT03023527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.