CYP17 Lyase and Androgen Receptor Inhibitor Treatment With Seviteronel Trial (INO-VT-464-006; NCT02580448)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 33% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancerher2erboneventricular
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsmalepharmacodynamicssubjectsgel
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Evaluate Oral VT-464 in Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02012920 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Once-daily Oral Seviteronel in Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Progressing on Enzalutamide or Abiraterone. NCT02445976 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Study of DS-8201a, an Antibody Drug Conjugate for Advanced Breast Cancer Patients, With Biomarkers Analysis NCT04132960 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• GS-5829 in Combination With Fulvestrant or Exemestane in Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive, HER2 Negative-Breast Cancer NCT02983604 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Dose Finding, Safety and Tolerability Study for AC220 to Treat Advanced Solid Tumors NCT01049893 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.