GS-5829 in Combination With Fulvestrant or Exemestane in Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive, HER2 Negative-Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticadvancedcancercarcinomarna
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatebreast cancerdayovarian28
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 113 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 315 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 74.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dose Escalation and Expansion Study of GSK525762 in Combination With Fulvestrant in Participants With Hormone Receptor-positive (HR+)/Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02964507 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of BEBT-209 in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT06047184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of GTx-024 in Patients With Estrogen Receptor (ER)+/Androgen Receptor (AR)+ Breast Cancer NCT02463032 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety and Tolerability of LJM716, BYL719 and Trastuzumab in Patients With Metastatic HER2+ Breast Cancer NCT02167854 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• A Study of Palbociclib in Combination With Fulvestrant or Tamoxifen as Treatment for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02384239 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.