A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Knee Osteoarthritis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (1,813 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2017-04-30, after 2015-12-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mrisclerosiscellsdiseaseplacebo controlled
Phrases that lowered it: kneeoaosteoarthritispatientsefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 56.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 70 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 0 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 15137 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5997 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 56.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 5.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- hyaluronic acid
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Human Umbilical Cord Mesenchymal Stem Cell Transplantation in Articular Cartilage Defect NCT02291926 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Osteoarthritis NCT01448434 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 13% of active trials completed
- Allogeneic Mesenchymal Stem Cells in Osteoarthritis NCT01453738 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Allogeneic UCMSCs for Treating Large Defects Knee Injury NCT05016011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- A Study Evaluating the Efficacy of a Single Injection Autologous Adipose Derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02838069 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.