Efficacy of Allogeneic UCMSCs for Treating Large Defects Knee Injury
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (103 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-03-21, after 2020-07-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mrilesioninjurycellstreating
Phrases that lowered it: kneejointarticularcartilagescreening -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- mesenchymal stem cells
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study to Compare Efficacy and Safety of Cartistem and Microfracture in Patients With Knee Articular Cartilage Injury NCT01041001 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess Safety and Efficacy of Umbilical Cord-derived Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in Knee Osteoarthritis NCT02580695 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
- Phase III Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness of NOVOCART 3D Plus vs. Microfracture in Knee Cartilage Defects NCT01656902 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
- Assessment of Efficacy and Safety of 3 Different Doses of co.Don Chondrosphere to Treat Large Cartilage Defects NCT01225575 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety Study of co.Don Chondrosphere to Treat Cartilage Defects NCT01222559 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 9% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.