Phase II Randomized Trial of mFOLFIRINOX +/- Ramucirumab in Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-01-27. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorspriorcancersolidpatient has
  Phrases that lowered it: first doselineplussubjectsonce daily
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ramucirumab Plus FOLFIRI Versus Ramucirumab Plus Paclitaxel in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Gastric Cancer, Who Failed One Prior Line of Palliative Chemotherapy NCT03081143 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• A Study of Ramucirumab in Participants With Gastric, Esophageal, and Gastroesophageal Cancer NCT01246960 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Ramucirumab Plus Irinotecan for Previously Treated Advanced Gastric or Gastro-esophageal Junction Adenocarcinoma NCT03141034 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Study With Paclitaxel +/- Ramucirumab in Patients With Squamous-cell Carcinoma of the Esophagus After Prior Therapy NCT03762564 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• A Double Blind, Placebo Controlled, Randomized Phase II Study Evaluating Gemcitabine With or Without Ramucirumab , for II Line Treatment MPM NCT03560973 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.