Phase Ib/II Study of MEDI4736 Evaluated in Different Combinations in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (257 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-07-09. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientsmetastaticpancreaticadenocarcinomachemotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: femaleallergyin differentopenvaccine
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 180 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1357 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 39454 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy or in Combinations With Tremelimumab in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Carcinoma NCT02558894 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, Multicentre Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of MEDI4736 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT01938612 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) Alone or in Combination With Other Agents in Participants With Previously Treated Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02981342 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Dose-Escalation Study Of Palbociclib + Nab-Paclitaxel In mPDAC NCT02501902 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials completed
• Exploratory Platform Trial to Evaluate Immunotherapy Combinations With Chemotherapy for the Treatment of Patients With Previously Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma NCT04787991 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.