Phase II Study of MEDI4736 Monotherapy or in Combinations With Tremelimumab in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-06-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticpancreaticadenocarcinomabrainmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: labelsingleopencombinationmulti center
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1336 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase Ib/II Study of MEDI4736 Evaluated in Different Combinations in Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Carcinoma NCT02583477 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• A Study of Multiple Immunotherapy-Based Treatment Combinations in Participants With Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma (Morpheus-Pancreatic Cancer) NCT03193190 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, Multicentre Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of MEDI4736 in Patients With Advanced Solid Tumours NCT01938612 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials completed
• Study of Gemcitabine, Abraxane® Plus Placebo Versus Gemcitabine, Abraxane® Plus 1 or 2 Truncated Courses of Demcizumab in Subjects With 1st-Line Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02289898 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• A Study of DMOT4039A in Participants With Unresectable Pancreatic or Platinum-Resistant Ovarian Cancer NCT01469793 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.