Engage 24: Evaluation of the Safety and Effectiveness of URG101 in Subjects With Interstitial Cystitis/Bladder Pain Syndrome

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 17% of the time (192 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disordersyndromebladdertherapyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: moderatedrugto severeevaluate thestudy
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 50% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 2 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7167 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Evaluation of Intravesical LP08 in Patients With Interstitial Cystitis/Painful Bladder Syndrome NCT01393223 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate Efficacy, Safety, Pharmacodynamics and Pharmacokinetics of ASP6294 in the Treatment of Female Subjects With Bladder Pain Syndrome/Interstitial Cystitis NCT03282318 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of the Effects of Mirabegron on Symptoms in Patients With Interstitial Cystitis NCT02787083 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• A Randomized Study Comparing Placebo and ASP3652 in the Treatment of Women With Bladder Pain Syndrome / Interstitial Cystitis (BPS/IC) NCT01613586 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Urodynamic and Clinical Efficacy of Mirabegron for Neurogenic Bladder Patients NCT02044510 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.