A Trial to Compare Nintedanib With Placebo for Patients With Scleroderma Related Lung Fibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (238 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseaseulnpulmonarytherapyfibrosis
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe trialthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 116 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 353 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test Whether Nintedanib Influences the Components of Birth-control Pills in Women With Systemic Sclerosis Associated Interstitial Lung Disease (SSc-ILD) NCT03675581 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Vixarelimab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and in Participants With Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease NCT05785624 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Nintedanib in Patients With Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Disease (PF-ILD) NCT02999178 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• A Trial of Tadalafil in Interstitial Lung Disease of Scleroderma NCT01553981 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• A Trial to Evaluate the Safety of Long Term Treatment With Nintedanib in Patients With Scleroderma Related Lung Fibrosis NCT03313180 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.