A Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Vixarelimab in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis and in Participants With Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (528 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-01-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: sclerosisto screeningpulmonaryfibrosisplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttocilizumabskinreceive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 19 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial to Compare Nintedanib With Placebo for Patients With Scleroderma Related Lung Fibrosis NCT02597933 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed
• An Efficacy and Safety Study of BG00011 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis NCT03573505 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK3915393 in Participants With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) NCT06317285 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Scleroderma Lung Study III - Combining Pirfenidone With Mycophenolate NCT03221257 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test How Well a Medicine Called Nintedanib Helps People in China With Progressive Lung Fibrosis NCT05065190 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.