Biomarker-Driven Therapy With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer Expressing AR-V7
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-06, after 2016-03-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 34.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumor cellscancersubjectcellcarcinoma
Phrases that lowered it: resistanthormonepatientsaminotransferasebone -
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 170 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11293 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 170 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 34.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 44 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24513 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 11293 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 73.5% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 25.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- enzalutamide, ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- COMbination of Bipolar Androgen Therapy and Nivolumab NCT03554317 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Biochemically Recurrent dMMR Prostate Cancer NCT04019964 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Tailored ImmunoTherapy Approach With Nivolumab in Subjects With Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02917772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Adrenocortical Cancer NCT02720484 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
- Combination of Nivolumab Immunotherapy With Radiation Therapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy NCT03543189 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.