Nivolumab in Biochemically Recurrent dMMR Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-07-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercellventricularprostateuncontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsclinical20corticosteroidsaminotransferase
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 32.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 246 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11415 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 42336 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Biomarker-Driven Therapy With Nivolumab and Ipilimumab in Treating Patients With Metastatic Hormone-Resistant Prostate Cancer Expressing AR-V7 NCT02601014 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• COMbination of Bipolar Androgen Therapy and Nivolumab NCT03554317 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Phase I/II Study of Immunotherapy Combination BN-Brachyury Vaccine, M7824, N-803 and Epacadostat (QuEST1) NCT03493945 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Study of Olaparib and Durvalumab in Prostate Cancer NCT03810105 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Combination of Nivolumab Immunotherapy With Radiation Therapy and Androgen Deprivation Therapy NCT03543189 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.