A Study of Olaparib and Durvalumab in Prostate Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-07-06, after 2019-03-07 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-07-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancertransplantdiseasemetastatichepatitis
Phrases that lowered it: investigatormellitusdiabetesinhibitorsantiretroviral -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 126 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 521 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5055 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 521 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 126 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5055 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2103 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 85.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- durvalumab, olaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Testosterone and Olaparib in Treating Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03516812 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study of PARP Inhibitor Olaparib and IV Ascorbate in Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT05501548 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Durvalumab and Olaparib for the Treatment of Prostate Cancer in Men Predicted to Have a High Neoantigen Load NCT04336943 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
- COMbination of Bipolar Androgen Therapy and Nivolumab NCT03554317 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
- Olaparib for the Treatment of Castration Resistant Prostate Adenocarcinoma NCT04951492 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.