Olaparib for the Treatment of Castration Resistant Prostate Adenocarcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-10-15, after 2022-11-09 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patients mustpatientcancerdltumor cells
Phrases that lowered it: maleadministration ofdisorderpatients whoprevious -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 32.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 129 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 676 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 676 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 129 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 10227 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2275 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 88.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 32.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- olaparib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Olaparib Before Surgery in Treating Participants With Localized Prostate Cancer NCT03570476 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
- Testosterone and Olaparib in Treating Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03516812 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- BrUOG 337: Olaparib Prior to Radical Prostatectomy For Advanced Prostate Cancer Defects in DNA Repair Genes NCT03432897 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
- Olaparib Maintenance in Patients With MCRPC After Docetaxel Treatment Reaching Partial or Stable Response (IMANOL) NCT03434158 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Study of Olaparib Maintenance Following Cabazitaxel-Carbo in Men With AVPC NCT03263650 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.