BrUOG 337: Olaparib Prior to Radical Prostatectomy For Advanced Prostate Cancer Defects in DNA Repair Genes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancersurgerylongreceivingmoderate
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluateinterfere withefavirenzinvestigatorsimvastatin
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 18.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 32 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2010 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 735 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Olaparib Before Surgery in Treating Participants With Localized Prostate Cancer NCT03570476 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Olaparib for the Treatment of Castration Resistant Prostate Adenocarcinoma NCT04951492 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials terminated
• Olaparib Maintenance in Patients With MCRPC After Docetaxel Treatment Reaching Partial or Stable Response (IMANOL) NCT03434158 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Testosterone and Olaparib in Treating Patients With Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT03516812 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of PARP Inhibitor Olaparib and IV Ascorbate in Castration Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT05501548 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.