A Multiple Dose Study of ABT-555 in Subjects With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 8% of the time (544 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-04-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: relapsingmsmrimultiple sclerosisremitting
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantseffectformulationreceived
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 92 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 67 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Tolerability Study of MEDI-551, a B-cell Depleting Agent, to Treat Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT01585766 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• An Open-label Study Evaluating Ofatumumab Treatment Effectiveness and PROs in Subjects With RMS Transitioning From Fumarate-based RMS Approved Therapies or Fingolimod to Ofatumumab NCT04353492 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• ATX-MS-1467 in Patients With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT01097668 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• ATX-MS-1467 in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01973491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Atacicept in Subjects With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (ATAMS) NCT00642902 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.