A Phase 2 Study of Atacicept in Subjects With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (ATAMS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 27% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2009-09-30, after 2008-04-30 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2009-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mrimultipleprotocolsclerosisrelapsing
Phrases that lowered it: relevantclinicaldiseasesevaluateefficacy -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 22 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 60 (lowers risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 2 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 60 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 22 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- atacicept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Cooperative Clinical Study of Abatacept in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01116427 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
- A Multiple Dose Study of ABT-555 in Subjects With Relapsing Forms of Multiple Sclerosis NCT02601885 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
- POC-MD MRI-based Trial in Relapsing-remitting Multiple Scler NCT01051817 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- ATX-MS-1467 in Multiple Sclerosis NCT01973491 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials completed
- Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of ACT-128800 in Patients With Relapsing-remitting Multiple Sclerosis NCT01006265 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.